Mideast: An Obama/Clinton foreign-policy cliff?

7 Dec

Is US Foreign-Policy cliff steeper than it Financial counterpart? Or, could Syria’s WMDs spread to rogues? The Financial-Cliff would affect the quality of life of most Americans, and others around the world; the foreign-policy Cliff could yield catastrophic results that in addition to affecting the quality of life, would likely cause significant loss of life, and generally irreparable geo-political realignment, and long-term problems.

Bashar Assad replaced his father as President of Syria without any descendible skills, nor any G-d given talent to do the job. Not being the oldest in his father’s line of succession, his appointment was resented by both his family, and those higher up in the Syrian hierarchy. Upon assuming the role of President, the young Assad set up to prove that he is a worthy replacement to his father.

Promising reform, the young Assad instead exercised harsh rule, and reduction in the human rights of his people. In many ways, Bashar Assad was asking for a revolt so that he can prove that like his father he can put one down. Bashar Assad now reached 40,000 slaughtered civilians, matching, or perhaps surpassing his father in that category. Since all his efforts to date did not return control of the country, continuing to suggest that he is not a skilled as his father was at governing the nation, Bashar Assad is now rattling the chemical weapons sword, and may well use it against his people.

It would indeed be a sad day if Assad use chemical weapons against his people, it would be catastrophic should Assad led rogue entities acquire such weapons to use for their own unsavory interest.

Some alarming scenarios include the supply of chemical weapons to Hezbollah, and to Hamas, both organizations like Assad’s Syria, clients of Iran. Additionally, should those factions rebelling in Egypt, the Middle East could be covered by a poisonous cloud that will affect, either directly, or indirectly, the whole world.

Obama’s Achilles-Heel: The foreign policy-cliff! Syria’s threat looms large!

“Leading from behind,” as the Obama Administration did during the revolt in Libya, was a “go-ahead” signal to people living in North African and Middle Eastern dictatorship, that they would be supported should they decide to overthrow their governments. The naive United Stats Administration read situations when dictators are removed as moves towards democratization, when in most cases these moves were really designed to expand Sharia rule.

In Libya, the Benghazi fiasco was a clear message to the US that its influence would not be what it was under Gaddafi, and Mursi “power-grab” in Egypt is a “red-flag” for the whole region. Add to that the situation in Syria, a nation with a large arsenal of chemical weapons and you have a formula for disaster.

The situation in Egypt is extremely alarming! Egypt, a country with the largest Arab Muslims in the world, is an important hub for the region, and beyond. A well-educated population, with a significant size intelligentsia, is going to resist a religion-based autocracy. Countering that is a strong Islamic Brotherhood (IB) that Mubarak kept silent for many years.

Coming out of his role in brokering the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, Mursi was riding high. In his glory, the Egyptian President misread his people and assumed dictatorial powers over the nation, an action that blew up in his face. Egyptians proved not to be sheep ready to be led to the slaughter.

Should Mursi’s proposed constitution, one based on Sharia Law pass, the situation in Egypt could become dire. Egypt could then become a religious autocracy with a charter that includes the termination of all treaties with Israel, a charter that will not make the country recognize Israel as a sovereign nation; a formula for a potentially large armed conflict in the region. Should Mursi constitution fail and a more secular constitution emerges, Egypt could be an early Christmas present to the region, and a key for a new level of stability.

Moving right along to Syria. Assad had now surpassed his father in the number of civilians that he slaughtered in an attempt to hold on to power. The 40.000+ dead were not enough to secure power for Bashar Assad; to the contrary, he is now weakened beyond anyone’s imagination. As a cornered wild animal, Assad, a man who is not known for logical behavior, may well resort to the use of Syria’s enormous chemical weapons arsenal. The internal conflict in Syria has already reached Turkey and Lebanon, should Assad start to use his chemical weapons and force the Western Powers to get involved, one can never predict how far the conflict might spread.

With Hamas and Hezbollah both having significant presence in Damascus, how soon before Syria, under orders from Iran, its mentor, would make sure that Hamas and Hezbollah have chemical weapons? Should the situation expand that far, all American interests in the region, including tens of thousands of soldiers in the Gulf, and on ships in the Mediterranean, in Turkey and elsewhere, are going to be in Harm’s way; can the United States continue to sit on the sidelines?

America’s fiscal-cliff is alarming; it could affect the quality of life of all Americans. The North Africa, Middle East foreign policy cliff, on the other hand, left unchecked could terminate the lives of hundred of thousands of people, including many American, and is likely to spread.

The Obama Administration must act immediately, it must take decisive action before the situation in Syria bring chemical weapons into play, and spread!

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