Israel a pawn that could emerge a Queen, or…A UN “created” Palestinian State, a vanishing sham?
Henry Kissinger, not a man I hold at the high esteem some do, but who does have some insights into world affairs, predicted that Israel will not survive beyond ten years; was he right?
Hamas, the Palestinian Authority (in its Arabic version,) Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and a number of others have as one of its main goals the destruction of the [Jewish] State of Israel. These are not desires, or wishes, they are their formal objectives, and that of a number of other groups. Iran, with backing from Russia, is supportive of these groups, supplying funds, weapons, training, and advice.
Adding to the Middle East situation is a revolt in Syria, an event in which Russia and Iran are trying to shore-up Assad, but which is likely to remove him from the scene in favor of some Islamic coolition, that may or may not succeed. Since Hamas has its headquarters in Damascus, and since Assad’s Syria has been serving as a conduit for Russian and Iranian resources to Lebanon (Hezbollah, plus, plus…), and to Hamas, the Palestinian Authorities, Islamic Jihad, and others, Assad removal should bring about a state of power re-distribution, which will likely also affect the situation in North Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, etc.)
Moving right along to Egypt. Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, contrary to American speculation when the US “led from behind,” are not becoming “secular democracies,” they are rather becoming Sharia ruled autocracies. In the case of Egypt, perhaps the most important Arab country, clearly the most populated one the situation is quite alarming. Should the Islamic Brotherhood, with the now visible President Morsi, be able to hold on to power, it may have to live up to its charter which also include the destruction of Israel. Morsi role as peacekeeper between Hamas and Israel notwithstanding, his party hierarchy is likely to force the rejection of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. This situation could be undone should Egypt’s military, driven by the more secular part of the population, gets involved. Should that happen a more democratic Egypt, not ruled, and the Islamic Brotherhood wishes, by Sharia law.
Returning to Israel’s role in the region. To orthodox, and most other Jewish people, having Israel as a Jewish State in the exact geographic location which it now occupies, is a G-d imposed truth, an obligation to Jews to support and cherish. Most Muslims don’t quite see it the same way. Regardless of historical facts, to Muslims Israel is an intruder in the region that should be extracted as soon as possible; Henry Kissinger’s prediction of Israel’s demise would be a very pleasing notion to most Muslims.
As soon as things settle a bit more in Egypt, and as soon as Egypt returns to being the voice, and perhaps force behind Arab Islam, the driving forces competing for control of the Islamic Middle East would be Egypt, with Arab (mostly Sunni Muslims,) support, and Iran, the Aryan, mostly Shia nation. Since Iran is basing its ambition on force and technology that gives it overwhelming power, and Egypt is still dealing with internal political unrest, Iran presently has the edge and is the source of fear ro the Sunni Arab countries of the region.
The most recent skirmish between Israel and Hamas was a test by Iran of Israel’s military capabilities, the resolve of America’s recently re-elected President, and the international community. Using its enormous and highly sophisticated propaganda machine, the Palestinians were able to paint themselves “victims,” to make Israel appear to be the aggressor, and to actually win the event. Again to quote Kissinger, for guerilla fighter not to lose, is a win.
What next? Should the Palestinian Authority (PA) succeed in getting the United Nations to accept it as a sovereign state, it would reduce its future options in dealing with Israel. Now, the PA can blame rogue elements for attacks on Israel, but, as a sovereign nation any and all attacks on Israel from its territory, including Gaza, are going to be acts of war; such actions will then be subject to “international justice,” with severe repercussions.
Israel, should it not be destroyed in the process, would be the “delegate” of the “free world” to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It would be a force in the new re-alignment of the Middle East, helping determine if it Iran, or Egypt that would rule the Islamic Middle East. Israel, playing its cards right could be a force behind the creation a new: United Arab Republic; one led by Egypt under a more or less secular Sunni control. As Palestine, an aberration now (since throughout history there were never a sovereign Palestine,) would be a part of a new Arab Republic, its role against Israel would end, as Israel would become the economic and technology leader in the region.
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