Imminent action to eliminate, or at least curtail, Iran’s nuclear activity, is in the offing. If the United States, its allies, as supported by the [Arab] Gulf States who fear Ahmadinejad’s Iran, leaves the actual action to Israel, one can count on something to happen very soon. The US leaving Iraq’s airspace under Iraq’s control, and the Islamic Brotherhood in process of taking control of Egypt and the Suez Canal, Israel is realizing that its window of opportunity is narrowing.
Additionally, the fact that this is an election year in the United States; Israel must act itself if any American President could be in a position to take the necessary action against Iran. As supportive as President Obama has been to Israel, and tough words from Secretary Pennetta about Iran’s nukes, Israel cannot be certain that another Obama Administration could deal more effectively with Iran. Adding all the facts that relate to Iran’s looming nuclear threat, Israel may be forced to move in the very near future.
Also, as cynical as this may sound, Israel, and the “free world,” must decide if its future should be left in the hands of the United States with Obama as President, or if it makes sense to wait and hope for a Republican Administration that will very likely more aggressive in dealing with Iran.
With Mubarak out of the way, the Islamic Brotherhood gaining control, and the looming Sharia law in Egypt, using the Suez Canal on the way to the Persian/Arabian Gulf may not be an option still available to Israel. The United States withdrawal from Iraq may complicate the air route that Israel may need to follow to get to Iran, when the time comes.
Since the Saudis and other Gulf states are as fearful of a nuclear Iran as is Israel, Israel already has a tacit approval to use that airspace on the way to Iran, Israel is left with two, rather than the three options they had before Egypt’s ouster of Mubarak. When Mubarak was in power Israel did use the Suez Canal to send a number of submarines to the Gulf, in order to test the options of using missiles, and perhaps in some areas actual the landing of special troops.
Israel’s options presently include air, and covert land activity; it may also use its special troops, if conditions dictate. The facts that options are reduced, and Iran is getting closer, and closer to getting enriched Uranium, Israel’s window of opportunity is narrowing, imminent action against Iran’s nukes is now likely to happen sooner, rather than later.
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