Archive | November, 2009

Muslin control of oil; an unintended, but dagerous, state! Or, Dubai, the begining of economic avalance?

29 Nov

The revelation of Dubai’s debt forfeiture, and what appears to be an all around economic meltdown, was not surprising. Dubai, as did its brethren Arab oil producing states, used oil income to feather its nest, not looking into developing other income producing resources of sustainable nature.

Dubai citizens are wealthy, as are all citizens of the UAE, and of most oil producing Arab states. Manual labor is left to imported people, mostly Palestinians who have third class citizen statue among its Arab brethren. While, at the same time, infrastructure work is done, in large part, by Westerners; European and Americans. The “locals,” are put in a position to take advantage of the richness, without assuming a responsibility to train for skills that are required for ensuring a future of the country, should, or rather oil revenues start to dry up, or keep up with the country’s expenditures.

Since expenditures in most oil producing Arab states have been growing at a faster rate than are oil revenues, most Arab oil producers borrowed a great deal of capital from Western financial institution. Many of these financial entities who were just recently bailed-out by the United States government, are likely significantly suffer from the economic break-down of Dubai and its neighbors, for many years to come.

In the United States, Home Land Security Administration is concerned with Islamic terror; while the economic impact of Islamic mismanagement of its oil revenues, may prove more damaging to the global community, than multitude of terrorist acts.

Islamic economic impact on the global economy may prove devastating. It is not likely that such effects on the economy were planned, or intentional; yet the results may prove no less damaging to the fragile global economy that was just starting to show weak signs of recovery.

Like the USSR, Afghanistan loss = loss of Superpower stature

28 Nov

loosing Afghanistan, which would be anything less than a clear win, would render the United States a “toothless tiger,” it would loose its “Superpowere” stature.

Similar fate followed the USSR misadventure in Afghanistan, the French in Vietnam, and almost to the United States in Korea, and than in Vietnam. It is unlikely that the United States will maintain Superpower stature should it not win the war in Afghanistan!

Dubai: Tip of the iceberg, a sign of things to come! Or, Islamic oil producers, their contribution to the next phase of global economic meltdown.

28 Nov

Dubai’s failure to live up to its financial obligation is not a surprise; Islamic oil producing states continue to spend money from present and projected oil revenues, never a healthy situation to be in.

Dubai, as are the other UAE states, built a show-place to the world, but they have done so on credit based on future income; the situation seems to have caught up, and the city-state now must postpone or simply stop from meeting its financial obligations..

The “glitz,” and Western style skylines of the Gulf States is amazing, but it is, as the case is often with Arabs, great form with very little, if any substance.

Dubai, a nomad country in a desert, had nothing to build an economy on, but oil. When oil income started tp grow beyond anyone’s expectations, this city-state decided that it must become a world-class commercial center. With oil money they built beautiful buildings, an island, a world-class golf course, automobile racing circuit, and other impressive Western style facilities.

While building all these show places, the government of Dubai did not build an income producing infra-structure, and remained dependant on oil revenues. Even their oil revenues did not follow the logical path of selling as much value added with the oil, as one possibly can add.

Technological establishment within Dubai, and the other Islamic oil producing states, are not built and manned by the Arabs themselves, they are rather imported “turn-key” operations. More often than not, these operations include staff, equipment, and even supply required for day-to-day functioning. When contracting for a hospital, for example, these oil producers generally acquire the facility with full equipment, and the personnel to operate it. Little, or near no local developed technical, or operating personnel is trained.

By virtue of their small population, and oil richness, citizens of Dubai, the other UAE countries, and the Saudis, are wealthy people. The oil producers use Palestinians for manual labor, American and Europeans fort skilled work, and simply live a life of leisure.

As is now happening in Dubai, however, and as one can expect from most, if not all, the oil producing Arab states, their rate of expenditure overtook the level of income, and debt payments are either postponed, or terminated, leaving many global financial institutions in trouble.

This is the beginning. In the next year, or two, one should anticipate numerous forfeitures by Arab oil producing countries that will send shock-waves throughout the industrial world. President Obama overtures towards the Islamic world are likely to prove wasted effort coupled with lost opportunity.

The small economic gains made by the Obama Administration are about to be overturned by those Muslims that Obama was hoping would help him reduce the international oil crunch and reduce the global recession!

The crunch on the oil produces has a great deal to do with leverage. Since their rate of expenditure will not allow them to slow oil production, and the competitive market place is not conducive to price increases, which may simply force increased production, it will then cause price reduction, and another production increase, a vicious-circle.

There will likely be forfeitures by oil producing states that will amount to many billions, likely in the trillion dollars to Western financial institutions. Should such situation develop, as it is likely to, neither the United States, nor any of its allies will be in a position to bail out such institution, and a more severe economic meltdown should be expected.

Why does Obama second-guess his military?

25 Nov

Why is President Obama second-guess his experts, the commanders on the field, and plans to send less troops to Afghanistan than they requested?

Afghanistan requires both military and political United States support; the apparent commitment President Obama is about to make, is short in both areas, leaving the country vulnerable to the Taliban, and perhaps El Qaeda.

Reducing the commitment for Afghanistan by 20% could well be the difference between getting the job done, and failing; did the young President feel it necessary to micromanage for his ego’s sake, or what? If the reason is cost, it is clearly irrational since 20% in the number of troops will translate to less than 10% in cost savings, not enough to justify the risk.

For example, if one goes to a medical expert (doctor,) and the expert recommends that one’s appendix be removed, does this leave the patient an option to ask that only 80% be removed, and ask for a discount?

Among other things, making a smaller commitment than was requested by the military, offer said commanders a reason to justify if the missionnot to be entirely successful; not an outcome the President wants.

It may not be too late for President Obama to commit the 40,000, leaving the door open for removing troops sooner rather than later, condition on the ground support such a move.

Novice on military matters, President Obama should either follow his own [military] expert’s (McChrystal) advice, or promptly replace him!

23 Nov

Barak Obama, the charismatic and exraordinary orator, bu his own admision, is not expert on military matters. Not only is the President and Vice President Biden lack expertise area of war and peace, for some reason they seem to avoid coplying with their own expert’s (McChrystal) in the field.

By continuing delaying decisions regarding additional troops for Afghanistan, the President is risking the success of military operation in Afghanistan, as well as the lives of many young American lives.

In order to carry out his duties in a responsible manner, President Obama must not secon-guess hid military experts, or if he does not trust them, replace them with experts whose opinion he respects.

Should President Obama be held personally liable for casualties in Afghanistan that may be due to not complying with his own expert’s (McCrystal) advice?

23 Nov

There is little, or no doubt, that President Obama is not an expert on military matters, and the same holds true for Vice President Biden. The President, as Commander-in-Chief, appointed General Stanley McCrystal as his expert in the field, and should presumably listen to his suggestions.

Delaying compliance to McCrystal’s suggestion, and not committing the additional 40,000 troops that the General requested, if the General is indeed the expert, and putting lives of troops in additional and unnecessary peril appears to be at least irresponsible, at worse, criminal.

Shouldn’t President Obama, unless he complies with his own expert advice in an area he knows little about, and casualties result, be personally responsible?

The President must comply suggestions from his expert in the field, or, if he does not trust said expert relive the expert without delay!

Obama must relieve McChrystal, or send 40,000+ to Afghanistan!

23 Nov

Assigning a responsiblity without authority, or resources, to carry it out, is at best irresponsible, at worse (especially in the case of risking soldiers lives,) criminal!

Barak Hussein Obama, as Commander-in-Chief, appointed General Stanley McCrystal as the supreme commander of United States led operations in Afghanistan. In his role as head of the Afghanistan effort, General McCrystal requested that President Obama commit an additional 40,000+ United States troops to Afghanistan suggesting that not doing so will put those presently in Afghanistan in peril.

For weeks now, the American President have been consulting a large number of people regarding a troop commitment to Afghanistan. With everyday the decision is delayed, Taliban is gaining strength, and the United States suffers unnecessary casualties. The President must either trust his commander on the ground, or replace him; any additional delays challenges McCrystal’s authority, and credibility.

President Obama must make a decision regarding additional troops for Afghanistan without delay, or risk many things, including the United States ability to avoid a loss to the Taliban, similar to the one suffered by the USSR when it was a World Super-power.