100K+ US troops, the new Afghan baseline; will a surge to 150K follow? The 25% cut in McChrystal’s request will cause an “Afghan surge,” at a later date.

In a March 2009 blog I predicted the 100,000+ American troops will be committed to Afghanistan in the short-term. Cutting the request of General by 25% will contribute to the need for a later surge, an action that will bring troop levels those similar to the one that were reached in Iraq.

Afghanistan is a complex country for outsiders to understand, let alone control. The geography, its neighbors, and the Afghan culture, would suggest that in order to bring a stable democracy to the country the Unites States will have to deploy an overwhelming force. The force that will be required to do the job is likely no less than 150,000, and, as Senator McCain suggested, be there for “100 years.”

It will not likely take 100 years, but more than the just eighteen + months that President Obama is targeting. The American public should plan on upwards of eight to ten years of troops in Afghanistan, and well over the 100,000+ troops presently committed to that country.

President Obama’s commitment to Afghanistan is far short of what require to stabilize the region, get rid of El Qaeda, and reduce the Iranian threat. Issues regarding Pakistan, and Iran are abound, they are only threatening the region, but they rather endanger the whole world. The Afghanistan situation should be completed in an orderly manner and not be terminated before the whole region reaches a stable state. Ending the Afghanistan mission before it is complete in order to yield to political, and popular pressures, would put the whole civilized world at long-term peril; a situation that must be avoided at nearly any cost.